A recent study led by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology and the University of Bergen highlights the necessity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement’s temperature goals. However, the study also reveals that even with significant efforts, CCS may not expand rapidly enough to meet the 1.5°C target.
What is Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)?
Carbon capture and storage is a technology that captures carbon dioxide emissions and stores them deep underground. Some applications of CCS, such as bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS), can even result in negative emissions, effectively reversing the impact of burning fossil fuels.
Despite its potential, the current use of CCS is minimal. The study, titled “Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets,” analyzed the past and future growth. It aimed to determine whether it can expand quickly enough to meet the Paris Climate Agreement targets.
Key Findings:
- The study found that over the 21st century, no more than 600 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide can be sequestered using CCS.
- This contrasts with many IPCC climate mitigation pathways, which sometimes require over 1,000 Gt of CO2 to be captured and stored by 2100.
- Lead author Tsimafei Kazlou, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Bergen, emphasized the importance of timing.
- “The later we start using CCS, the lower the chances are of keeping temperature rise at 1.5°C or 2°C,” Kazlou stated.
Reducing Failure Rates and Expanding Projects
The study underscores the need to increase the number of successful CCS projects and reduce failure rates. This is crucial to ensure the technology takes off this decade. Current policies, such as the EU Net-Zero Industry Act and the US Inflation Reduction Act, are driving CCS development. If all current plans are realized, it’s capacity could be eight times higher by 2030 than it is today.
However, historical failure rates for CCS projects have been high, around 90%. If these rates persist, capacity in 2030 may only be twice what it is today. This is insufficient for meeting climate targets.
Challenges and Opportunities for Growth
Even if it takes off by 2030, challenges remain. In the following decade, it would need to grow as fast as wind power did in the early 2000s. This is necessary to keep up with the carbon dioxide reductions required for limiting global temperature rise to 2°C by 2100. From the 2040s onward, CCS growth would need to match the peak growth of nuclear energy in the 1970s and 1980s.
Associate Professor Jessica Jewell from Chalmers University of Technology noted, “The good news is that if it can grow as fast as other low-carbon technologies have, the 2°C target would be within reach. The bad news, 1.5°C would likely still be out of reach.”
The Need for Strong Policy Support and Rapid Decarbonization
The authors emphasize the need for robust policy support for CCS combined with the rapid expansion of other decarbonization technologies. This is essential to meet climate targets. Professor Aleh Cherp from Central European University in Austria stated, “Rapid deployment of CCS needs strong support schemes to make projects financially viable.” Cherp added, “At the same time, our results show that since we can only count on CCS to deliver 600 Gt of CO2 captured and stored over the 21st century, other low-carbon technologies like solar and wind power need to expand even faster.”
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